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Islamic Dinar : 4.25 grams 22 K Gold

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Thursday, March 27, 2008

A Muslim’s Matter is Amazing...

This time I want to share a view on how to react on the ups and down of the Dollar, Oil and Dinar – from the Islam perspective.

I took the title of this article from one of Rasool SAW Hadits in the Riyadhus Shalihin that translate:

Rasool SAW said: “A Muslim matter is amazing, in fact all matter is good for him. That is not owned by someone unless he or she is a Muslim. If he receives happiness, he is thankful and it is good deed for him. But if he receive suffering, he is patient and that is also a good deed for him”. (HR Muslim)

Amongst Rasool SAW Sahabah that inspired by the hadits even analogized the happiness and suffering as two horses, ride on any of them is not a problem. At a times when riding the “horse” of happiness he is thankful, in the other hand at times when riding the “horse” of suffering he can be patient.

What is the relationship between being thankful and patient with Dollar, oil and Dinar?

For the sake of all the people right now – low oil price is good. Our needs will all be more affordable if oil price is cheap. That’s why in my article two days ago I was happy to see that the oil price tends to decline; and at that time I was hoping that the decline will last long. My happiness is seeing the oil price decline is InsyaAllah better that my dislikes looking at a powerful US$ , it is a shame that these two things coincide in the market.

In contrary, the US$ is weakening these days. Last night the US $ Index declined 1.25%; along with the increase of oil price to US$ 106.12/barrel. Even in the famous oil website Oil-Price.Net states that the 1 year forecast of US$137.96/barrel.

We know that 1 barrel equals 117.35 liters, which means crude oil price is US$1.18.liter or Rp10.915/liter..... Then how much will the Government price for the Premium fuel in the market? Worrying right…?
As Muslims we need to know these problems so that we can act correctly and hopefully can make it as praying field for our savings in the hereafter.

Before a energy crisis happen along with the increase of oil price, lets start to think about an alternative energy solution that will benefit a lot of people. Alternative energy sources are abundantly provided by Allah in this earth, and will be enough until the end of the world. One of them is the wind energy I wrote in my article dated 13/3/2008.

So InsyaAllah our concern on the increasing oil price can result in new good deeds for us that is alternative energy for the people until the of time. For readers that have knowledge and experience in alternative energy can help realize this idea. Wallahu A’lam

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Wednesday, March 26, 2008

Dollar Weakens Again...

After showing it’s strength last week, in the last couple days the US$ weakens again. US$ Index, the benchmark of the Dollar towards other strong currencies, after declined by 1.23% two days ago, declined again by 1.25% yesterday.

As a consequence of the weakening US$, the gold price increased by almost 2.5% yesterday and further increase by 1.4 % this morning. Honestly this increase is faster that I predicted on Tuesday, because I was hoping the low gold price can hold on for a few weeks or even months so that Dinar is spread to the society with a more affordable price.

In the short term, the weakening US$ is driven more by perception rather than fundamental. The weakening US$ was triggered by the report by the Conference Board a Business Membership & Research Organization known by international business players with its product, the Consumer Confidence Index.

In its last report, out 25/3/2008; the Consumer Confident Index, a survey from 5,000 US households, showed 64.5 (from 100 in 1985). This number is a serious decline from last month, 76.4.

The low Consumer Confident Index in general is inline with the weakening purchasing power and consumption level of the people, which means a weakening economy. When the economy weakens, the people needs alternative to rescue their investment – from hereon, gold is a safe choice; so the gold price increase.

We need to understand the perceptions that influence temporary trends so we know what is really happening in the market; but in the decision making process, it would be safer if we use fundamental basis.

Because this temporary increase is driven by perception, then in the next few days if there is a trigger that reverse that perception, then gold price will decline again.

In the other hand, if the increase/decline of price is driven by fundamental reasons, then it will need a fundamental change to reverse the trend.

At least, according my own analysis – all the fundamental basis tends to drive the gold price or Dinar upwards in the long term – even though in short term it can be go up and down like what is happening in the past two weeks. Quantitative analytical results, are presented in the form of Dinar price trend in a period of one month, to forty years.

By presenting the trend, hopefully the people will be well informed about the Dinar price before deciding to invest in it.

Besides quantitative data I already present, I am preparing a more qualitative analysis that can explain more on why the Dinar price will keep going upward. In time, InsyaAllah I will present in this blog. Only Allah Most Knowledgeable, while we don know anything expect what Allah tell us.

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